Susan's Musings

Why the Election was Lost

I'm sharing an e-mail I received today. Not only is ACT an organization worth supporting, but I wanted to share the article that is at the end. As hard as that is to believe, the bottom line is that terrorism was the issue that turned the election in favor of Bush. Interestingly when I was canvasing in New Hampshire last spring this was the #1 issue for the people I talked to.

Here's the letter and article:

Dear Susan,

This past Sunday I wrote an op-ed for the Washington Post titled "Okay, We Lost Ohio.  The Question Is, Why?".  In it, I try to dispel a few of the most popular myths about how John Kerry lost Ohio (and the election overall) by interpreting the most recent exit polling and results of a post-election survey taken by ACT.  Read the full article, below. 

Our work in Ohio and around the country achieved record turnout and key victories for Democrats in Congress, state legislatures and gubernatorial races across the battleground states.  But the bottom line still remains -- George Bush won reelection and, now more than ever, we must stand together to fight against the Republicans' extremist agenda.

http://www.act04.org/future

In the month since Election Day, ACT has begun an extensive review.  The lessons from it are great and sometimes difficult, but only by thoroughly understanding what happened -- in every precinct of every state -- are we able to effectively build a strategy for the future. 

And just as you did on Election Day, you are leading the way today!  Not waiting for us, reunions of ACT volunteers have been organized around the country with hundreds of ACTivists at each.  You are the heart of this organization and I am incredibly honored and excited for the opportunity to work for you leading ACT into the New Year. 

We want to continue to be your home, your campaign and your cause.

So, will you stand with ACT in 2005?   Will you recommit your time, passion and money to helping build a sustained progressive movement in the United States?  Will you help keep ACT field offices open in Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and elsewhere? Will you continue to lead the fight against George Bush and the radical Republican agendas in federal, state and local governments?

I know your answer is yes.  Please help chart ACT's course today.

http://www.act04.org/future

We have started building comprehensive plans for 2005, 2006 and, of course, 2008.  We are identifying key races -- on the federal, state and local levels -- which are critical to our party and our future. 

Now it's up to you.  Your pledge of support today will help us make some very difficult decisions.  So please take a moment now to help chart the future course of the largest voter mobilization effort in history.  Change is more than a mouse-click away, but this is the first important step.

ACT didn't end on November 2nd, it's just beginning today -- with you.

http://www.act04.org/future

Thank you for all you do.  Best wishes for a safe and happy New Year.

Steve Rosenthal
CEO
America Coming Together

PS.  You are receiving this message along with nearly 400,000 volunteers, donors and online supporters of ACT.  Help us spread the word by announcing your continued support of ACT to your friends and family. 

http://www.act04.org/future

From the Washington Post - Sunday, December 5, 2004.  Page B3
www.washingtonpost.com

Okay, We Lost Ohio. The Question Is, Why?
By Steve Rosenthal

When it came to getting out the Democratic vote in Ohio during the presidential election, we hit our target numbers. My organization, America Coming Together, along with our 32 America Votes partner organizations, the Democratic National Committee and the Kerry-Edwards campaign not only exceeded our turnout goals for the Buckeye State, but far exceeded anything the Democrats have done in the past.

And we still lost. President Bush won the election by fewer than 130,000 votes out of 5.6 million cast in Ohio, according to the state's latest figures. We added 554,000 votes to our totals, but the Republicans countered with 508,000, enough to keep the state in their column.

Since then my colleagues and I have gone back to answer a nagging question: Who were all those Bush voters? Though much has been made of the Republican grass-roots effort in Ohio and elsewhere, we did not see the sort of Republican organization that seems necessary to produce that many new votes. Where did they come from?

We've done a post-election poll of 1,400 rural and exurban voters in Ohio counties that Bush won by an average of 17 percentage points. Their answers, and a closer look at other poll data, explode a few widely held theories about what happened.

The first myth: Many more churchgoing voters flocked to the polls this year, driven by the Bush "moral values" and the gay marriage referendum.

Reality: The 2004 election brought no increase whatsoever in the portion of the voting electorate who attend church on a weekly basis or more often than that, according to exit polls. In Ohio, the share of the electorate represented by frequent churchgoers actually declined from 45 percent in 2000 to 40 percent in 2004. Nationwide, Bush improved his vote among weekly churchgoers by just one point over 2000, while increasing his support among those who don't go to church by four points.

So how could religious voters have been the basis of Bush's victory, at least in Ohio? Answer: They weren't.

Second myth: The Bush campaign won by mobilizing GOP strongholds and suppressing turnout in Democratic areas.

Reality: Turnout in Democratic-leaning counties in Ohio was up 8.7 percent while turnout in Republican-leaning counties was up slightly less, at 6.3 percent. John Kerry bested Bush in Cuyahoga County (home of Cleveland) by 218,000 votes -- an increase of 42,497 over Gore's 2000 effort. In Stark County (Canton) -- a bellwether lost by Gore -- Kerry won by 4,354.

Third myth: A wave of newly registered Republican voters in fast-growing rural and exurban areas carried Bush to victory.

Reality: Among Ohio's rural and exurban voters, Bush beat Kerry by just five points among newly registered voters and by a mere two points among infrequent voters (those who did not vote in 2000).

Fourth myth: Republicans ran a superior, volunteer-driven mobilization effort.

Reality: When we asked new voters in rural and exurban areas who contacted them during this campaign, we learned that they were just as likely to hear from the Kerry campaign and its allies as from the Bush side. (In contrast, regular voters reported more contact from the GOP.)

Then perhaps it was conservative religious groups or pro-life organizations or the National Rifle Association that reached these new Republican voters?

No, according to our post-election polling; only 20 percent of exurban and rural Ohio voters reported that they had been contacted by someone from their church, and only slightly higher percentages were contacted by conservative organizations. In contrast, these same voters in the least unionized regions of Ohio were more likely to have been contacted by a labor union.

Much has been made of the Republican effort to turn out voters through personal contact. Yet our poll shows that voters in these Republican counties were just as likely to be visited by a Kerry supporter at their homes as by a Bush supporter. Fewer than 2 percent were visited by a Bush supporter whom they knew personally.

Among the voters the Republicans targeted, the Democrats went toe-to-toe, knock-to-knock and phone call-to-phone call with them. And rest assured, in urban areas Republicans could not come close to matching the Democratic ground effort.

Still, Kerry lost in Ohio, if narrowly, and that tipped the Electoral College in Bush's favor. If this wasn't a flood of "moral values" voters or a GOP juggernaut, what was it?

The reason Kerry lost the election had much more to do with the war in Iraq and terrorism than the political ground war in Ohio. Terrorism trumped other issues at the polls -- including moral values -- and anxious voters tended to side with Bush.

o By 54 percent to 41 percent, voters decided that Americans are now safer from terrorist threats than four years ago, national exit polls said.

o By 55 percent to 42 percent, voters accepted Bush's view that Iraq is a part of the war on terrorism. By 51 percent to 45 percent, they still approved of the decision to go to war (though a majority expressed concerns about how the war is going).

o Just 40 percent said they trusted Kerry to do a good job handling the war on terrorism, compared with 58 percent who felt that way about the president.

The Bush campaign was able to persuade some voters who supported Gore in 2000 to turn to Bush in 2004 on the issues of terrorism, strength and leadership. Bush bested Kerry among those who voted in 2000 by five percentage points -- Bush bested Gore in 2000 by three points.

The other major factor was our side's failure to win the economic debate. Despite an economy that was not delivering for many working people in Ohio, the exit poll results show that voters in Ohio did not see Kerry providing a clear alternative. Just 45 percent expressed confidence that Kerry could handle the economy, compared with Bush's 49 percent.

The GOP put on a strong mobilization effort, but that's not what tipped the Ohio election. They did not turn Gore voters into Bush voters by offering a ride to the polls. Instead, it was skillful exploitation of public concern over terrorism by the Bush team -- coupled with Democrats' inability to draw clear, powerful contrasts on the economy and health care -- that pushed Bush over the finish line.

ACT now and help shape the future of ACT:  http://www.act04.org/future

Contributions to ACT are not deductible for federal income tax purposes.

Paid for by America Coming Together (888 16th Street, NW, Suite 450, Washington, DC 20006), and not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.

 

The Tipping Point

I hope you had a great Thanksgiving!

I have been distracted from writing recently. The holiday, my birthday, working on some new web pages, developing a strategic marketing plan (as opposed to the rather free floating, in my head plan variety) and getting used to working with an assistant. (More about all of that later)

I have also been doing a bit of reading. I don't generally read nonfiction books from cover to cover (usually read sections, skip some and skim others). When they are compelling enough to do so they typically make it on to my recommendation list and this is no exception. The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference by Malcolm Gladwell is about how ideas and social trends become viral and spread like any physical virus and it is fascinating.

There are some very powerful ideas in this book. Enlightening for everyone, especially those who are interested in spreading any kind of message. I have been working on a project about how to create authentic change which is focused on personal and individual change. It will be interesting to see what the correlations may be. (Stay tuned for a new blog dedicated to this project)

Coming out of the election, one of the questions that I have had is, how has fundamentalist "Christianity" become such a movement in spite of its clear departure from traditional Christianity and what seems to me to be its lack of mental health (yes I do have a bias here)? Some things are clear to me. Fundamentalism of all kinds (Christian, Islamic, political...) tends to be fear based. My sister, a UCC (United Church of Christ) minister told me recently that studies show that there is an upsurge in fundamentalism in times of social and political unrest and uncertainty. So that part is clear to me, fundamentalism gives people answers that assuage their fear and on that level it makes a great deal of sense.

But Malcolm Gladwell puts another spin on it. Not really another spin but adds a depth of understanding. First are the people who communicate a message, Mavens, Connectors and Salesmen. They take a message from Innovators and Early Adopters (the visionaries) and translate it to the Early Majority which is the step it needs to take to become a trend (blogs are probably right at this tipping point). The message of the visionaries may be more complex, creating confusion so the communicators translate the message by dropping extraneous details and exaggerating the message itself.

Now think about this in terms of fundamentalism. In the case of Christianity, evangelical leaders function as charismatic interpreters who have "leveled" the Bible into something understandable (sticky) and meaningful to people. They have interpreted it in such a way that it fits into the context of their lives and context contributes to contagion. So the environment which feels out of control and frightening becomes fertile ground for an exaggeratedly simple message.

Bush capitalized on this fear during the election. Fear is a very sticky message which when combined with a charismatic communicator (personally I don't get it but people do respond to him that way) who simplified the message and repeated it endlessly thus contributing to its contagion. The scary part is that it did not matter whether the message was true. What mattered was the stickiness and a characteristic of the person communicating it.

I wholeheartly recommend reading this book. It's the sort of book that will spark lots of ideas that go way beyond the book itself. It is also a must for people in business. It will suggest ways of seeing new trends coming which is certainly beneficial for product development and it will help any business market its products.

Report on Barney Frank Lecture

I am just back from listening to Barney Frank, Congressman representing the Massachusetts 4th District. This man is a tell it like it is, straight shooter and tonight was no exception. Some in the audience were looking to feel better and he quite bluntly told them that he was not there to make them feel better saying that the first step in changing things is to recognize reality and the reality is that we are facing very bad times.

The worst thing I heard tonight was that Mr. Frank believes that the current deficit is a deliberate strategy to force the elimination of popular programs by making them unaffordable. Truly this idea had not occurred to me and I find it positively horrifying.

The second worst thing I heard was than Mr. Frank believes than Bush will manage to get Roe v Wade overturned.

Basically the gist of what he said was that there are no quick fixes. We need to be focused on the elections in 2006 and the best strategy is to hold the Republicans accountable. He feels much of what Bush wants to do will be accomplished but that the American public is going to hate it when they start seeing the results. Therefore our most effective strategy needs to be to educate people so that there is no doubt about who to hold responsible.

Asked if a return to 1960's type tactics would help, he said no. Other than making people feel good in the moment things like demonstrations and marches will backfire especially if we do them here (the East Coast) because they will alienate the middle of the country. He also said that the work to be done is not glamourous nor will it attract a lot of media attention but it is what will work in the end--organize, work to elect Democrats in 2006 and work within organizations to help them connect the dots. Connecting the dots means educating the people within any and all organizations (cancer support, homelessness, churches etc) that money for their favorite causes is going to dry up if they support tax cuts.

He also feels that the Bush Administration is going to focus on domestic issues rather than foreign policy. They have already made a mess of foreign policy and they know it plus they don't have the resources available to invade anyone else so he doesn't think we'll see any more of that. He also thinks that it is possible that this Administration will start pulling troops out of Iraq after the election especially if the election doesn't go the way they want.

Many criticisms of the Republicans were expressed by the audience to which Mr. Frank consistenly responded with there is nothing we can do as long as they are in control. He said Democrats would fight and argue against what the Republicans had in mind but that there was little they could do because the Democrats are not in control. Even re investigating voter fraud--who are we going to complain to--the Attorney General, the Justice Department? They are all Republicans.

The message is clear. Find a way to start working to get Democrats elected in 2006 and make sure everyone you know is clear about who is in charge and hold those in charge accountable.

I am not sure what actions I am going to take. I am going to a Stop Bush Tuesday night and I am watching Democracy for America (Howard Dean's organization) carefully. I am sure ACT (America Coming Together) and MoveOn will be refocusing toward 2006. There will be lots of opportunities to make a difference. Now is the time to figure out what you are going to do and start doing it.

Things I've Heard in the Past Few Days

From a Chinese American "We are becoming like China."

A woman responded to me when I suggested that we needed to understand what happened, "But we didn't do anything wrong" with a stubbornness and vehemence that would do Mr. Bush proud. No desire to understand anything here.

"Maybe we were outprayed." In a spiritual meeting when talking about how "Christians" were praying for Bush's election.

On the radio, I heard a woman in Missouri saying how uncomfortable she felt in church because she was a Democrat.

Vision for the Democratic Party

During the campaign and over the past few days, many are talking about how John Kerry and the Democratic Party lacked a cohesive vision. I think that is probably a valid criticism. In an election that voters tell us was about the rather ambiguous term "moral values", it is becoming clearer and clearer that those of us who voted in blue failed to articulate who we are and what we stand for.

I always thought this election was more about character than issues and often felt frustrated by John Kerry for focusing so much on issues. The results of the election shows that voters really didn't give a damn about the issues. They did care about character and values. That they managed to so dramatically misread the character of both opponents is certainly disheartening with plenty of blame to go around. George Bush misrepresented himself while John Kerry failed to define himself.

BTW, I am rapidly coming to believe that George Bush is not a deliberate liar. More frightening to me, is that he really believes his own lies. My personal take on that is that he is quite delusional but that's just my opinion and really isn't the point. George Bush presented himself as something he is not and half of the country bought it.

It doesn't matter. The way to wage the character and values war is to present a compelling vision. At this point, no amount of finger pointing and protesting motivated by fear and hate is going to change anything. That will pretty much get us more of the same. We do need to define ourselves in such a way that the majority of the country will see us and support us.

The piece that never got communicated in this election was that the dominant value of the Democratic Party has always been SERVICE. From Roosevelt, to Kennedy, to Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Teddy Kennedy, Tom Daschle, Howard Dean, John Edwards, John Kerry and all the rest, the overriding purpose of their lives has been to serve the people of this country, all the people of this country. That can hardly be said for the likes of Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bush 41, Newt Gingrich, Trent Lot, Tom DeLay, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Bush 43 etc. Trying to prove that they are right is probably a more accurate description of motivation for this group.

The Democratic Party is about service combined with freedom and justice. These are the qualities of the Democratic Party that got lost in our justifiable hatred of George Bush. George Bush and the current version of the Republican Party are the antithesis of service, freedom and justice. The difference between us needs to be made crystal clear to the American public between now and the next election in 2006..

Reflections

I hoped that after this election was over, this blog would return to business, creativity and coaching. Alas, we have only just begun.

I have needed a few days to absorb the results of this election. I am feeling a bit blindsided, disoriented and disappointed. I am not angry or hurt or disillusioned just numb. Shock does that. Maybe that's what I am experiencing--shock!. Not shock as in surprised although I did expect to win, but shock as in traumatized, the shock that follows the death of a loved one, the shock that follows traumatic injury. That is what it feels like. I feel numb and the reality of what has happened has not sunk in emotionally while my thoughts are tending to be obsessive and disjointed.

I am watching and reading everything anyone has to say with morbid curiosity. A huge part of me wants to retreat, turn off C-Span, CNN and PBS not to mention the New York Times, and get on with my life and the rest of me is well aware that I will do none of that. The ultimate result is that I will continue to participate in grassroots organizing and already have my sights set on the Congressional elections in 2006.

But politics are only a small piece of what needs to be happening. Politics is just the current stage for a deep social, cultural and religious divide that is separating the people of this country. There is something much more profound and disturbing going on than George Bush winning reelection. That is just a symptom. There is something much more fundamental going on.

I am not exactly sure what that is. Is it the religious right? Is it fear? Is it lack of self awareness? Is it lack of identity? Is it moral values? Or is it lack of vision? Is it that we have lost sight of the values that this country was founded on--freedom and justice for all?

Lots of ideas are being bandied about in the press but the truth of the matter is that we don't really know and we desperately need to figure it out. We need to understand the root cause of why over half of this country would demean honesty and integrity while rewarding arrogant self interest.

So for the next bit of time, I personally need to reflect on this question. I would suggest that we all take a dispassionate and unbiased look at what is really going on in this country. At this point it is almost impossible not to take sides but to the extent of our ability to do so we need to study and seek to understand. Then we will know what actions to take and where our efforts can be used to greatest effect.

Here's to Democracy!

Amazing! I had to wait in line to vote. And news reports from around the country are reporting long lines everywhere. I have never had to wait more than a couple of minutes and this time it was about 1/2 hour. And this in a nonbattleground state.

Happy Voting Day!

PLEASE VOTE!!!

There are tears in my eyes every time I vote. I can't help thinking about the fact that women have only had the vote for 84 years, less than a century. We got the vote the year my mother was born in 1920. That's only a generation ago. And I think about people all over the world who have fought and died for this right to vote, how people have walked for days and waited in long, long lines to cast a vote. I think about the Civil Rights Movement getting the disenfranchised African-Americans registered in the South in 1963. That was within my lifetime and people died.

We will see at the end of the day but all reports suggest that Americans have gotten the message. I have heard estimates that as many as 70% of the electorate will vote. Was it Florida in 2000? The intense registration drives and get out the vote efforts? Probably all of that but for whatever reason, we are involved again and that can only be good for our democracy.

I am including this link to Paul Krugman's editorial because it's good and because he gets choked up too when he goes to the polls. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/02/opinion/02krugman.html?th.

Want to help out today. Go to http://votercall.org to call voters to remind them to vote and see if they need any help getting there.

My Report from the Campaign Front

I have been spending most of my time this past week calling folks in battleground states. This was to a list of self identified Kerry-Edwards supporters asking them to participate in Get Out The Vote efforts in their states.

It has been an interesting experience for someone who basically doesn't like that kind of thing. As early as last fall, I knew I had to find a way to participate in a way that was in line with my integrity. In January I began writing letters for Howard Dean and one woman in New Hampshire sent me a Kerry sticker in response. That sticker is now on my bumper.

When Howard Dean lost in the primaries, I had to reevaluate what to do. What was clear to me at that point was that Bush had to go no matter what so I had to support John Kerry but I really didn't start liking him until the Democratic Convention. Even after that there were times that I felt he was a rather lame candidate to quote Maureen Dowd of the the New York Times. But as this campaign has continued, I have gained respect for him not for what he's done in the past but what is in him to do in the future. The long and the short of it is that I think this man has the potential to become a great statesman. The presidency has a way of drawing out the character of the person holding that position. In Bush's case the demagog has emerged. In Kerry's case, I believe that we will see a kind of statesman like leadership that we haven't seen in many, many decades.

When I was still feeling lukewarm for Kerry, I decided that the most effective thing I could do would be to work on voter registration. To that end I sent forms and letters to unregistered women in battleground states. Most of my letters went to Pennsylvania. From all reports, this was a very successful effort.

As we have drawn closer to the election with voter registration deadlines passing in many states, I shifted my focus to the Phone Corp for Kerry. This is a group of 60,000 volunteers calling Kerry supporters to get them signed up for Get Out The Vote activities in their states. This has truly been the most interesting because in among all of the messages left, there have been some really interesting conversations. Here are just a few.

The woman in Arkansas who thought that the Red Sox winning the World Series was a good omen. We both knew we were being a bit superstitious but I shared her optimism. She was already a very active volunteer.

Then there was the woman in Florida who told me John Edwards had just been there and "he could bring his sweet, pretty face down there any time he liked." And she signed up for a phone bank.

And several people have made the comparison to Germany in the 1930's when Hitler was coming to power. Many people are hesitant to share that view but it is clearly shared by many Americans and has motivated many of them to get involved.

My personal favorite was the 16 year old I talked to in Florida. If he is at all representative of his generation there is reason for great hope in this country. We talked for about 20 minutes because he had a dilemma. It was a question of integrity for him--was it ok for him to volunteer when he is not yet eligible to vote? That he was even asking that question made me want to jump through the phone line and thump him on the back. Those are the kinds of question we should always be asking ourselves before we take action. In the end, he decided he did not want to canvas (my guess is that is because he looks his age) but that he would be willing to participate in a phone bank. He decided that this was a way to have his voice heard.

And then there were the folks who were just waiting to be asked. Happy to hear from me, they would say "Yes, when do you need me and where do I go?" Sometimes even saying yes before they asked what they would be doing. Thank you to all of them who said yes.

Of the hundreds of calls, there was only one really negative call. A mother who was clearly voting for Bush would not let me talk to her daughter who was clearly supporting Kerry. Shame on Mom!

Although taking time away from business to participate in this way is not my idea of a good time, I have found these phone calls encouraging. There are good people out there working for positive change in this beloved country of ours. All in all, making these calls to people all over the country has made me feel less alienated than I do when I look at polling maps and see that huge block of red states in the middle of the country.

I will be back to making calls this afternoon and tomorrow.

And one other thing--while calling on Saturday afternoon, a sense of deep calm came over me. I have been feeling very anxious about this election for weeks. Some nights I have had trouble sleeping but since Saturday, it has been incredible calm. I take that to mean that we are going to win. Today's polls are certainly confirming that, showing that if the vote were today Kerry would win with 298 electoral votes. I find that encouraging but also know that the polls do not tell the whole story so I will continue to make calls.

In Case You Have Trouble Voting

With so many rumors about voter suppression, it appears to be a wise move to be prepared.
Here is the information you will need if you have any difficulty voting.

http://cdn.moveonpac.org/content/pdfs/ep_card.pdf